New poll has Labour leading in the West Midlands and on course for outright majority at next General Election

Labour is on course to win an outright majority at the next General Election, according to a new MRP poll, with the party’s recovery under Andy Burnham felt across Warwickshire and the wider West Midlands.

In the latest research from Electoral Calculus, conducted on behalf of national communications agency PLMR, voters were asked how they would vote in a General Election tomorrow. In the first PLMR poll since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, Labour is forecast to win 28% of the national vote, up from 22% in July and 17% in January.

Reform UK is predicted to win 21% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 18%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, the Green Party 9% and Restore Britain 8%.

On these figures, Labour would win 353 seats, giving it a majority of 56. The Conservatives would form the official opposition with 90 seats, ahead of Reform on 81. The Liberal Democrats would win 70 seats, the SNP 28, Plaid Cymru five and the Greens four.

The results would suggest Andy Burnham’s message of 'hope', affable personality and recent policy announcements is beginning to cut through with the public.

It’s a remarkable turnaround from July, when PLMR’s previous poll had Labour and Reform level on 22% and pointed to a hung parliament. Reform has now fallen ten points since January, with Restore Britain eating into its support.

In June last year, Reform was tracking to win 35 of the 39 parliamentary seats in Birmingham, the Black Country, Solihull, Coventry, Warwickshire and Worcestershire. The new poll predicts it would win just seven of them.

Labour is now projected to win 23 of these seats, including all three in Coventry, taking Birmingham Perry Barr from an independent and Sutton Coldfield from the Conservatives. The Conservatives would hold seven, with one each for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

Andy Burnham’s party now has 27% of the vote in the West Midlands, with Reform on 25%, the Conservatives 20%, Restore Britain and the Greens on 9% each and the Liberal Democrats 7%.

The poll also asked who should have the most say over local services such as transport, housing and schools. In the West Midlands, 55% said their local council, 14% a regional mayor or combined authority and 9% the UK Government, while 23% did not know.

Commenting on the findings, Rebecca Langton, PLMR Board Director and Head of PLMR Midlands, said:

“Three months ago, this looked like a two-horse race between Labour and Reform heading for a hung Parliament. Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street has changed that picture entirely, and Labour is now on course for a working majority.

“The West Midlands shows how quickly things can move. Reform was once forecast to sweep almost every seat from Birmingham and Coventry to Warwickshire and Worcestershire, yet it is now predicted to win just seven of them, mostly in the Black Country.

“Andy Burnham has built his reputation on devolution, and more than half of people in the West Midlands told us their local council should have the biggest say over local services. Regional leaders, local authorities and businesses will be looking to the new government to back that with real powers, long-term funding and investment in the places that have too often felt overlooked.”

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said:

“Our figures show a remarkable reversal of fortune for Labour under Andy Burnham, with the party now predicted to win 353 seats, an outright majority. Burnham has used clear left-of-centre rhetoric to win back those voters who drifted to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens when Keir Starmer was leader, rather than chasing Reform voters.

“The right, by contrast, remains split. Restore Britain would win very few seats, but it is cutting into Reform’s vote and leaving it with fewer than 100 seats - less than the Conservatives. A pact between the Conservatives and Reform would give them just 171 seats, not even half of Labour’s 353. Under the first-past-the-post system the side that unites first wins and Andy Burnham clearly understands that and is acting on it.”